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According to a report released in mid October by the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), much of the western and central parts of the US, including north central states could experience a warmer than normal winter this year. Also forecasted are warmer temperatures for most parts of Alaska.

The prediction comes as a result of an El Nino occurrence in the central and eastern equatorial section of the Pacific Ocean. The warmer water temperatures resulting from El Nino allow tropical currents and rainfall to influence weather patterns which affect the intensity and location of the jet stream.

While predicting warm temperatures in the central regions, NOAA predicts cooler than average temperatures for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States. This area encompasses southern and eastern Texas, and along a line that includes the lower part of Pennsylvania and south through Florida. This may come as a relief to Floridians who have been experiencing record setting heat waves this fall. NOAA also believes cooler and drier weather is expected for Hawaii over the winter while wetter conditions could occur in California.

In their long range forecast, NOAA mentions that the Northeastern states are not generally affected by El Nino and should experience no unusual fluctuations in temperature or precipitation. However they point out that weather along the Northeast is affected more by occurrences in the Arctic and North Atlantic and can usually be predicted only a week in advance.

Previous El Nino data and tracking trends have provided NOAA with enough information to forecast increased tornado activity along the Gulf Coast this winter.